Mexico Open 2023: Betting Tips, Best Bets, & Sleepers

The Vidanta Vallarta Golf Club in Vallarta, Mexico is all set to host the 2023 Mexico Open, which tees off on Thursday, April 27.

The tournament boasts a full field and Masters champion Jon Rahm is the overwhelming favorite, with odds of +280 to clinch the title. With such short odds, it really feels like Rahm vs the field.

Rahm won the tournament last year but he didn’t exactly dominate the field, finishing with a score of -17 and edging out three runners-up by a single stroke. Among those runners-up was Tony Finau, who is the second-favorite to win this year’s tournament with odds of +750.

The only other Top 20 golfer in the field is Wyndham Clark, who has +1800 odds to win, followed by Gary Woodland at +2200. Rahm set the 72-hole record in last year’s tournament, while Finau set an 18-hole record in the final round of the 2022 Mexico Open with a score of 63.

While the field may not be as star-studded as in recent weeks, the course still provides an interesting challenge with four driveable Par 5s and a gettable Par 4 at No. 7. Last year the course really favored the big hitters, like Cam Champ who was right in it last year until a rough 4th round kept him out of contention.

Check out the complete list of opening odds for the 2023 Mexico Open below, which is set to begin on Thursday, April 27:

The Best Sports Betting Sites for the 2023 Mexico Open

2023 Mexico Open Opening Odds

2023 Mexico Open Best Bets

Rahm is such a big favorite this week as the defending champ, that a bet on him to win just feels like a Rahm vs the field bet that you can typically make heading into a Saturday or Sunday of a tournament. +280 to win a golf tournament before it starts is just such short odds. That coupled with the fact that Rahm is the returning champ and has been super busy after his Masters win a few weeks ago, I don’t see much value in taking him to win. If you do want to take Rahm, maybe wait until Friday or Saturday to see if he falls back a bit, and take longer odds on him making a run, something he is obviously capable of.

Tony Finau Top 5 (+180)

The first number that jumped out to me was Tony Finau at + money for a Top 5 finish. With this field, I wasn’t sure we’d get + money on that, but +180 looks very appealing. Finau fired off an absurd final round 63 at Vidanta last year to finish just one back of the Champion Rahm for the tournament. I’ll probably also pull the trigger on Finau +750 to raise the trophy on Sunday, but I’m absolutely playing Finau Top 5.

The Pick: Tony Finau Top 5 +180

Grayson Murray Top 20 (+1600)

Perhaps you’ve never heard of Grayson Murray, but he was excellent last year at the Mexico Open finishing T-11 with three rounds of 67 or better. The 29-year old is playing solid golf right now, too. He’s made two of the last three cuts including a T-15 at the Puerto Rico Open and a 33 last week at the Zurich. He won the 2017 Barbosol Open. It’s hard to ignore how well he played here last year. We may add him to a “make the cut” parlay, but we love the value on this Top 20 finish.

The Pick: Grayson Murray Top 20 +1600

Gary Woodland To Win (+2200)

Woodland wasn’t amazing at last year’s Mexico Open but he was solid. He finished T-24 with round of 67,72,69,67. But the four time PGA Tour winner has be very competitive as of late with Top-30 finishes in three of his last five tournaments and two top-10 finishes on the 2023 season. The reality is that this course suits Woodland extremely well. It’s just going to come down to the putter. If he can roll it a bit and get some putts to fall, he’s going to be right it in on the weekend.

The Pick: Gary Woodland Top Win +2200

Patrick Rodgers To Win (+2500)

Another sleeper that was fantastic in the 2022 edition of the Mexico Open is Patrick Rodgers. The 30-year old Stanford grad is having his best season on tour yet with three Top 10 finishes including a T3 at the Bermuda Championship and a solo 5 this month at the Valero Texas Open. Rodgers shot two rounds of 66 last year here at Vidanta and was primed to be right in it but struggled a bit down the stretch with a final round 70. Still, he showed he can really score at this course built for long drivers. We love the value on him to finish top 10 (+275) and to win.

The Pick: Patrick Rodgers Top Win +2500